Turkey's renewable power capacity is forecast to grow by 53%, or 26 gigawatts, between 2021 and 2026 with solar and wind accounting for 80% of the capacity increase, according to the International Energy Agency's projection in its annual Renewable Market Report published this week.
The agency sees growth in renewables in Turkey shifting from hydropower to low-cost solar PV and wind.
Hydropower has currently the largest renewable share capacity at almost 31.5 gigawatts, making up 30% of the country’s total installed capacity, which stood at 99.05 gigawatts at the end of October 2021, according to the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company.
Wind is the second-largest renewable source in Turkey with around 10.3 gigawatts while solar follows with 7.6 gigawatts.
Due to affordable technology costs, the wind and solar are expected to continue. The analysis shows that Turkey can generate 20% of its total electricity from wind and solar by 2026 without negatively impacting transmission system and planning. Doubling the installed wind and solar capacity to 40 gigawatts (GW) is feasible without any additional investment in the transmission system compared to the Base Case scenario defined in this analysis. The total investment needed to expand the transmission grid and the additional transformer stations is estimated approximately the same as earmarked by Turkey’s transmission system operator (TSO) Türkiye Elektrik İletişim A.Ş.’s (TEİAŞ) Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP). The impact on forwarding and curtailment of electricity is found to be negligible. A wider distribution of solar and wind capacity across the country – based, on-demand, substation capacity and speed and irradiation – produces remarkable benefits for integration.
“We expect around 48% of the capacity additions in Turkey during the 2021-2026 period to come from solar, with wind accounting for 30% of the capacity increase in the main case,” said Heymi Bahar, the lead author of the report and senior analyst at the IEA.
“Hydropower will create 14% of this growth while biofuels and geothermal make up the rest,” Bahar told Anadolu Agency (AA).
He noted that capacity increase trends in Turkey are similar to that of global growth.
Driven by the commissioning of large hydropower projects and a feed-in tariff (FIT) deadline for onshore wind, Turkey’s annual additions doubled last year compared with 2019.
However, the agency says, a reduced hydropower pipeline is expected to result in lower growth over 2021-2026.